R to @Ayjchan: PCAST has historically provided advice on pandemic preparedness and response, including for Covid, as well as on biodefense against natural and research-related threats.
It cannot hurt to have a few members with pandemic or biodefense expertise.
Please appoint life scientists to the President's Council of Advisors on Science & Tech.
Recent bio pioneered in US:
mRNA vaccines
CRISPR gene editing (& gene therapy)
AlphaFold
CAR-T cancer therapy
Human Genome Project, next-gen seq, single cell genomics
Tissue engineering
Our next event is on April 6, with @Ayjchan, author (with
@mattwridley) of Viral: The Search for the Origin of Covid-19, and recently at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard.
To those claiming US 🧑🔬 designed or created Covid: you’re saying Chinese gov knew US had proof & was directly complicit but instead
- Blamed pangolins for months
- Made @WHO support frozen🍖 origin
- Took blame for millions ☠️
- Risked assets seized by Missouri because of Covid
R to @Ayjchan: Here's the evidence that Covid most likely leaked from a lab in Wuhan:
https://x.com/Ayjchan/status/1797567949173149786
R to @Ayjchan: Since 2020, influential scientists and even philanthropic donors have tried to get me fired or disciplined just for saying a lab origin of Covid is plausible.
If there's proof in the public literature that scientists created Covid, I would've seen it.
R to @Ayjchan: Here's why it's exceedingly unlikely that Ralph Baric created Covid and sent it to Wuhan:
https://x.com/Ayjchan/status/2036818642927505800
R to @Ayjchan: I understand that the competence of scientists has fallen under question because of the Covid pandemic, but do people really think no one bothered to check if the genome sequences of these viruses match the Covid virus?
If Ralph Baric's papers showed he had Covid in the lab prior to the pandemic, why would scientists like me have endured years of being attacked and intimidated just for saying a lab origin of Covid is plausible?
Some scientists argue that Covid jumped 2x from an animal to human at a Wuhan market in Nov/Dec 2019.
Some argue that US scientists created Covid and sent it to Wuhan where it leaked from a lab.
Between the two, I can't tell which is less supported by the available evidence.
R to @NatureMedicine: By 2019, Wuhan scientists:
🦇Collected viruses from Yunnan/Laos where Covid's closest relatives have been found
🧬Genetically modified SARS-like viruses w/o leaving a trace
🫗Operated at low biosafety BSL2
🧪Grew viruses in many species of cells while preserving furin cleavage sites
💡Said they would put furin cleavage sites in SARS-like viruses
Their US collaborators shared these ideas but didn't have access to the Wuhan virus collection, database, or cell lines for growing viruses. Baric also operated at high containment BSL3.
R to @NatureMedicine: If Fauci and others in the Feb 1 call were aware then of the WIV-EHA-Baric plans to put furin cleavage sites into SARS-like viruses at low biosafety, I think they wouldn't have bothered speculating about serial passaging.
https://x.com/Ayjchan/status/1595401489337417728
R to @Ayjchan: Haslam & Sachs go so far as to fault Anthony Fauci & Proximal Origin authors for not mentioning the Defuse proposal in their 2020 @NatureMedicine letter.
After Defuse leaked in 2021, I'm guessing these scientists wished they had never staked their reputations on natural origin.
R to @Ayjchan: Their decision to suppress the lab leak hypothesis and conceal information highly relevant to Covid origins has come back to bite them.
It's 6 years late, but better than never, for them to come clean and tell the public what they really know.
https://x.com/mattwridley/status/2036526083709747270
R to @Ayjchan: If Ralph Baric & the EcoHealth Alliance had revealed the Defuse proposal to the public in Jan 2020, I believe there would've been a strong case to be made for their integrity as scientists, patriotism to the US, and concern for people all over the world.
But they did not.
R to @Ayjchan: When the stakes are this high, I believe it's in the best interests of involved parties to be transparent. A scientist & its institute should not want to go down in history as obstructing the investigation of a pandemic that killed 20+ million people.
https://x.com/Ayjchan/status/1818769835830214982
R to @Ayjchan: For almost 6 years, I've strongly advocated for a full investigation of the US-based EcoHealth Alliance & Ralph Baric.
These US partners of the Wuhan Institute of Virology did not have access to Wuhan databases or lab records, but their communications could have clues.
As far as US involvement in Covid origins goes, top research funders advocated for gain-of-function research & virus hunting + middlemen & collaborators sent 💰 & ideas to Wuhan.
But scientists in China were the only ones with the ability & materials to create Covid-19.
This is correct. Baric's refusal to share his emails or testify in open session is fueling implausible speculation that he created Covid. An own goal.
In all the thousands of years of Chinese history a sarbecovirus with a furin cleavage site turned up the year after, and in the same city as, a plan was made to make such a virus.
I believe an accidental lab pandemic is much more likely than a deliberate pandemic in the near future. The solutions of biosecurity startups and nonprofits will be tested then but its unclear they would compete well against established vaccine & therapeutics manufacturers.
🔬Scientific progress depends on discovery, but also the freedom to question, debate, and examine evidence wherever it leads.
In the spirit of that ideal, I’m thrilled to announce the launch of our NIH Scientific Freedom Lecture Series, an exciting new forum aimed at advancing transparency, rigor, and open scientific inquiry.
Please join me March 20 at 2:30pm ET for our inaugural talk, titled “Viral: The Search for the Origin of COVID-19” featuring a conversation with Matt Ridley, D.Phil.
Guests can attend in person at the Masur Auditorium in NIH Building 10 or online via the NIH videocast page. https://bit.ly/3PsHAu5
R to @gadboit: Ralph Baric was even asked this question point blank and couldn't come up with a single example.
R to @gadboit: That's why I find accusations of grifting hilarious because no one sane would want to be in this position for the money 🥳
R to @gadboit: I don't buy into the idea that nothing can be done, the problem is too hard, so please ask someone else.
R to @gadboit: Gain-of-function research that can cause pandemics has not benefited the public or national security. I'd like to hear one clear case where this has happened.
R to @gadboit: We have entered an era of fierce political animosity where no gov official can rely on keeping their job when the administration changes. The window of time one is given is determinate. It would be better to focus on using the time one is given instead of trying to extend it.
R to @gadboit: Speaking to Christian principles of stewardship, if one has been given the power and the responsibility to prevent the loss of millions of lives, you cannot make excuses like waiting for someone else to fix the problem for you.
R to @gadboit: We already saw the previous NIH director and NIAID director lose their positions over Covid-19 origins. The current NIH director should be the first to know if any research funded by NIH can cause pandemics and strive for early intervention.
This concerns millions of lives.
R to @gadboit: Let's say another lab pandemic arises from work funded by NIH post-2025. The NIH director cannot say, I left the checking to other people and washed my hands of it.
I took part in several simulations regarding exactly this long before SARS-CoV-2 emerged. Dr. Chan is correct: under the circumstances she describes here, a pathogen with a CFR of 10%, a high R0, and unmitigated transmission is perfectly capable of causing societal collapse.
R to @Ayjchan: Detection/surveillance is important.
Masks & PPE + a functional distribution system are important.
Clean air is important.
Medical countermeasures are important.
Even with all 4 pillars in place, a highly transmissible + moderately deadly virus can collapse governments.
R to @Ayjchan: A pathogen does not need to be designed, with or without AI, to be 100% deadly in order to pose civilization-ending risk.
R to @Ayjchan: I estimate 10-20% lethality with majority infected needing hospitalization is sufficient to end civilization as we know it.
This point doesn't seem to be appreciated by those who believe accidental lab leaks aren't capable of being catastrophic.
R to @Ayjchan: One point I appreciated in their discussion was that a virus doesn't need to be 100% lethal to upend society.
It just has to be lethal enough that essential workers decide they won't go out and expose themselves and their loved ones to death.
R to @Ayjchan: Link to podcast:
https://www.samharris.org/podcasts/making-sense-episodes/463-privatizing-the-apocalypse
Link to substack:
https://robreid.substack.com/p/the-deep-lunacy-that-was-almost-deep
Listened to 'Privatizing the Apocalypse', a conversation on the dangers of virus hunting & pandemic resurrection between @Rob_Reid & Sam Harris @MakingSenseHQ
The number of people capable of causing pandemics is growing. Governments are not tracking & regulating this research.
With Runnin' Down a Dream published, I want to turn my attention to the accompanying foundation. Details: http://rdad.org Simply, micro-grants for people that are inspired by the book, but need a boost. I am actively looking for a Director. Details in next thread.
I hope Congress passes the bipartisan Risky Research Review Act to regulate federally-funded dangerous gain-of-function research.
It would be the first lasting change made by US government since Covid-19 (1M+ in US dead, $16T loss to US) to prevent more lab-based pandemics.
Why hasn't the current ODNI declassified any of the intelligence linking Covid origins to the Wuhan Institute of Virology?
The Covid-19 Origin Act of 2023 was unanimously passed by the House and Senate and was signed by the President.