Some hard-hitting journalism, much needed as the Middle East goes down in flames.
Breaking !!!
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Pro-Palestinian private citizen liked posts critical of Israel !!!
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The central question remains: what is the objective of this war?
Is the goal regime change in Iran — or the destruction of the Iranian state?
Because the scale of the current campaign increasingly raises the question of which of these two outcomes is actually being pursued.
How can the destruction of major infrastructure in Iran, or trying to encourage the Kurdish minority to revolt against Tehran be explained while simultaneously claiming that the campaign is “for the Iranian people”?
Is the objective the complete destruction of Iran? If so, the scale of the current strikes becomes easier to understand.
But can you simultaneously call on the Iranian people to take to the streets while the same campaign is destroying the country’s infrastructure?
Even if we assume such pressure eventually triggers internal unrest and the Iranian public manages to overthrow the exactly (it will probably do the opposite) - would the destruction of infrastructure help them rebuild their country, or make that task far more difficult?
At the same time, Iran’s likely retaliation for these strikes could significantly drive up global oil prices.
In other words — how much of what we are currently seeing is actually designed to serve a clear strategic objective?
#IranIsraelWar
Trump seems increasingly detached from reality, and it is unclear to me whether there is anyone in his administration with the brains and courage to reign in him.
A few days ago if was all about liberating and empowering Iranians. This turned dark fast ...
IRAN WAR WEEK ONE WINNERS AND LOSERS
🥲IRAN: Sustained a lot of damage including losing a bunch of their leadership early on. However, they appear to be prepared for that and the govt remain cohesive. The comically underpowered Air Force is somehow still flying and missile launchers far from completely destroyed. The strategy of escalating hard and early to gulf allies paid off.
😬USA: sustained major damage to regional bases. This is proving to an expensive war. What’s worse, the United States needs Iran to crack quickly for this to be a win and they’re proving resilient. The strike on the Girls school was a horrible PR black eye. The very fact that ground forces is even being considered points to desperation.
🤭Israel: Coming in strong. Most of the videos claiming to show Tel Aviv devastated etc seems to be fake. Unlike the US they don’t need Iran to completely capitulate for this to be a win for them. Weakened Iran, weakened gulf allies and even weakened America is all in line with their goal to be the only relevant power in the mid-east. Yet there’s the possibility that this war would turn out to be a bad call if they run out of interceptors and start taking damage or if this war triggers Iran to finally go nuclear for real.
😱: Gulf states are possibly the biggest losers so far. Unable to defend themselves effectively. Expensive infrastructure and reputation trashed. UAE sustained huge damage. Bahrain possibly destabilized. Qatar had to declare force majeur and not deliver contracted fuel cargoes.
🥳: Russia is probably the biggest winner so far. Oil price up up. Less pressure on Ukraine war.
😏: China scooping up the bonanza in how US weapons systems operate. Very well insulated from energy issues as already prepared huge strategic reserves and vessels ok to get through the straits of Hormuz.
😣: europe another big loser. Going to face huge energy issues as well as deteriorating condition in Ukraine war already going badly.
😨: rest of the world eg east Asia India etc sweating. A lot of oil and gas is getting taken out and if the war continues as it appears would happen they will fall into fuel insecurity one by one.
That reeks of desperation ...
Don't submarine carry inflatable life rafts?
Also, there was apparently a US destroyer nearby.
How can a random Polymarket account correctly predict:
- US striking Venezuela
- US kidnapping Maduro
- US forces in Venezuela
- US striking Iran
- Israel striking Iran
- US striking Iraq
- Israel striking Khamenei
- US anti cartel operations
And his next bet is public for everyone: US forces entering Iran in the near future.
Insane!
Apparently, the submarine left the survivors to drown after sinking the Iranian warship, despite being in no danger.
This is a war crime. Submarines are bound by the same duty to rescue people in distress at sea and provide initial care than surface vessels.
The School of Biosciences at University of Birmingham is recruiting FIVE Assistant/Associate Profs in areas including fungal biology, plant science and bioengineering. Full details below 🍄🌾🧬🧫
R to @BallouxFrancois: What I find really weird is that the revelation doesn't seem to be a gaffe, and it is being reported by an "Official White House" account. Do this people not realise how damaging this revelation will be, or is this a strategy to shift the blame for the war on Israel ...
Of the many justifications offered by the Trump administration why they went to war against Iran, this is the most damaging. It makes the US look weak and will further inflame resentment against Israel in the American public.
I fully agree with a post by @MattWalshBlog, and I'm retweeting it unironically.
The ways of the Lord are inscrutable ...
Does this indicate:
1. a concerted attempt by the US Govt to deescalate war with Iran
2. total confusion about its objectives
Interesting either way, and not mutually exclusive ...
Can you spot the flaw in the below graph? After all, it suggests New Zealand had much higher cumulative excess mortality in 2020-24 compared to Sweden and US...
You can read more on the assumptions behind excess mortality – and how to make the metric tell any story you like – in my recent piece: https://kucharski.substack.com/p/excess-mortality-or-excessive-assumptions
How do tissues organise, adapt, or collapse? 🧬
We’re looking for a postdoc with strong quantitative skills to tackle these questions in a highly interdisciplinary project bridging spatial omics, ecology & mathematical modelling.
Apply 👉 https://tinyurl.com/3d37d3st
Please share.
R to @BallouxFrancois: Many thanks to everyone involved in this major multidisciplinary collaboration. A special mention to @cedriccstan for his herculean efforts leading to those new insights that required running a set of highly challenging analyses. The preprint will form a chapter of his PhD, which @LucyvanDorp and I have been blessed to supervise.
7/
R to @BallouxFrancois: The strains recovered from patients for the most common bacterial pathogens were genetically diverse and unrelated to each other. This suggests that many infections arise from pre-existing patient colonisation rather than hospital disease outbreaks.
5/
R to @BallouxFrancois: The study sets a new benchmark for understanding the complex (anti)microbial dynamics of HAP. The scale of the cohort and depth of metagenomic analysis are unprecedented, and could lead to actionable insights—particularly regarding diagnostic blind spots and antibiotic resistance surveillance.
6/
R to @BallouxFrancois: Our analyses reveal extensive multidrug resistance in a substantial fraction of samples. Species often dismissed as commensals, such as Staphylococcus epidermidis, were among those carrying high levels of resistance, raising questions about their potential role as reservoirs of antibiotic resistance genes within the respiratory tract.
4/
R to @BallouxFrancois: We uncovered a surprisingly high prevalence of fungal taxa -- including Candida and Aspergillus spp. -- in approximately one-third of patients, challenging the current perception of their role in pneumonia pathogenesis. Fungal pneumonia may be far more common than generally acknowledged. 2/
R to @BallouxFrancois: The lung microbiomes are largely indistinguishable across ventilated and non-ventilated patients, suggesting that invasive mechanical ventilation is not a driver of microbial differences in HAP.
3/
New preprint analysing microbial signatures of Hospital-Acquired Pneumonia (HAP). HAP is a major cause of morbidity / mortality, yet it remains poorly defined microbiologically. We profiled the respiratory microbiomes of 250 HAP patients in the UK. Metagenomic sequencing detects putative pathogens in a significant number of PCR- and culture-negative samples, suggesting that conventional diagnostics underestimates the diversity and prevalence of HAP-associated microbes.
1/
Link to the study: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.08.09.669460v1
Israeli propagandists allege that starvation in Gaza is staged because a photojournalist took a photo (literally his job) of hungry people waiting to receive aid. Israelis think this helps their case, but normal people are finally seeing how desperate and deranged they are.
The responsibility for the al-Ahli hospital bombing on Oct 17 2023 remains contentious. Since then, Israel bombed every single hospital in Gaza.
The responsibility for the starvation of this child suffering from cerebral palsy remains contentious. The world should intervene before Israel starves every single child in Gaza.
He didn't just die because we cut off food, but also because we destroyed the healthcare system in Gaza and won't allow insulin in, is a weird flex ...
We just bought this 3D dog "painting" from an antique shop on our way home from a boozy party. Right now, I think it's amazing. I wonder how I may feel about it tomorrow ...
R to @BallouxFrancois: Fish on plate.
R to @BallouxFrancois: Fish ...
Lovely barbecue party, and this random cat joined. He doesn't even seem interested in the food, just chilling ...
I have challenged @grok in the replies here - this is not caused by any underlying condition but lack of proper medical nutritional support NG or PEG supplemental feed.
Underlying conditions does not make it ok to starve a child.
It gets worse 🧵
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"I'm a human rights lawyer." 🤔