OUCH! By 2028, Google, Meta, and Amazon will each bring in more ad revenue than all of traditional media ad spending combined, acc to projections from EMarketer, echoing similar findings from WPP last year. (via Semafor)
BREAKING: South Korea’s stock market falls over -6% on the day as Asian markets react to the worsening energy crisis.
Oil prices are no longer the biggest threat to markets.
It has become increasingly clear that bond markets will dictate just how long President Trump can continue increase pressure in the Iran War.
The 10Y Note Yield is now up ~45 basis points since the war began on February 28th.
This is in-line with the rapid surge seen around "Liberation Day" in April 2025.
As the 10Y Note Yield surged above 4.50% in April 2025, President Trump began floating a potential tariff "pause."
And, once the 10Y Yield broke above 4.60%, President Trump officially implemented a 90-day pause on his reciprocal tariffs on April 9th, 2025.
With the 10Y Note Yield now up to 4.40%, we believe the 4.50% to 4.60% range will be the "line in the sand" again.
The US economy cannot handle a 5% 10Y Note Yield.
More evidence of Asian counties performing a LNG-to-coal fuel switch: Thailand has reactivated two coal-fired units that had been mothballed.
The switch is important to put a lid on global LNG (and European gas) prices.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/general/3221035/coal-units-restarted-to-curb-electricity-costs#
Trump ist wahrscheinlich genauso überrascht wie die Kollegen.
The flow of liquefied natural gas from the Gulf is expected to come to an abrupt end in the next 10 days https://ft.trib.al/fbv1oLK
Nochmal zum runterkommen, was wirklich vorgefallen sein soll:
Hier die wesentlichen Gründe und der zeitliche Ablauf nach den Angaben (hauptsächlich aus Spiegel-Recherche, ihrem Instagram-Statement und Interviews) von Collien Fernandes:
Sie wusste seit ca. 2015/2016 von Fake-Profilen und Deepfakes/pornografischen Inhalten unter ihrem Namen, suchte aber jahrelang nach unbekannten Tätern (u. a. 2023 öffentliche Kampagne, 2024 ZDF-Doku „Die Jagd nach den Tätern“).
November 2024: Erste Strafanzeige gegen Unbekannt (in Berlin), nachdem ein Bekannter sie auf gefälschte sexuelle Chats/Nacktbilder ansprach.
25. Dezember 2024: Im gemeinsamen Hotelzimmer in Hamburg liest Ulmen ein Interview von ihr über die Anzeige → er wird nervös und gesteht ihr zitternd, dass er dahintersteckt (laut ihrer Schilderung aus „Besitzdenken“ heraus).
Ende 2025: Nach der Trennung (Herbst 2025) erstattet sie konkrete Anzeige gegen ihn in Spanien (wo sie zuletzt lebten), weil dort die Zuständigkeit für Gewalt gegen Frauen günstiger sei und bessere Ermittlungen erwartet wurden. Das Vorverfahren startete am 2. Dezember 2025.
März 2026: Die Spiegel-Recherche bringt alles ans Licht (19. März 2026), Fernandes postet gleichzeitig ihr langes Statement auf Instagram und benennt ihn öffentlich.
Fertiliser analysts are now saying the world faces a monumental food crisis. The US will be hit hard too. People elsewhere will starve. Trump’s war appears to be about to quite literally destroy the world. Insane. 🌽
Sehr, sehr lesenswert. Inflation ahead. Sehr wahrscheinlich.
Thailand Faces LNG and Fertilizer Shortages, Threatening Food Prices and Industry
Thailand is at risk of facing shortages of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and urea fertilizer, which could worsen the current oil crisis and drive up food prices, warns Associate Professor Dr. Anusorn Tamajai, Bangkok MP for the People's Party and former board member of Bangchak Corporation.
He said 85% of LNG shipments to Asia pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and ongoing conflict in the region could disrupt supply chains, affecting industries from plastics to agriculture. Fertilizer shortages are already pushing prices up 15–16%, raising production costs for farmers and threatening crop yields.
The plastics industry has also been hit, with raw material shortages forcing some producers to halt production and cancel orders. Food prices are expected to rise as the cost of agricultural inputs climbs.
Anusorn called for government measures including subsidies for fertilizers, promotion of organic alternatives, securing new import sources, and long-term domestic fertilizer production. He also urged preparations for possible fuel rationing and strengthening energy and food security.
He warned that a prolonged war could strain Thailand’s fiscal position, with public debt expected to exceed 70% of GDP within a year, further impacting the economy and taxpayers.
#Thailand #Deisel #Oil #น้ำมัน #น้ำมันดีเชล #วิกฤตน้ำมัน #สงครามอิหร่าน
Being antiwar is the libertarian position.
There is no other.
Eine sehr lesenswerte, realistische Betrachtung dessen, wie sich der Irankrieg weiter auswirken könnte. Noch ist es sehr still….
Pinned: x.com/i/article/203554860643…
President Trump over the last 36 hours:
Friday, 3:40 PM ET: "I don't want to do a ceasefire with Iran."
Friday, 5:15 PM ET: The US is "considering winding down" the war with Iran.
Today, 2:00 PM ET: Axios reports Trump is planning "peace talks."
Now: "If Iran doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours the US will obliterate Iran's power plants."
What's happening behind the scenes?
Nachdem man die Anführer getötet hat, will man jetz herausfinden, wer die Entscheidungen trifft… 🤦♂️
Inflation surges due to oil shocks.
None of the prior episodes had U.S. interest payments reach 5% of GDP.
None.
Expect inflation to surge again, with the Fed having to justify a rate cut.
That is certainly not priced in markets today.
https://open.substack.com/pub/tavicosta/p/tavi-costa-macro-presentation-461?r=2m39jp&utm_medium=ios
Great chart from @leadlagreport
BREAKING: President Trump's team is currently trying to find the "best point of contact" for negotiations with Iran, along with a country to mediate, per Axios.
While Oman mediated the last round, Trump is seeking Qatar as a mediator due to "mutual distrust" with the Omanis.
x.com/i/article/203534880819…
Bund-Renditen über 3% – das ist kein reines Inflationsphänomen.
Die Risikoprämie steigt deutlicher, weil seit der Aussetzung der Schuldenbremse betrachtet der Markt 🇩🇪 nicht mehr als risikofreien Anker, sondern als kritischen Schuldner mit einem strukturellen Schuldenproblem.
Tokyo and Tehran appear to be negotiating billaterally safe passage for Japanese-flagged oil tankers.
One possilibity is that Iran emerges from the war keeping the keys of the Strait of Hormuz, deciding who crosses, when, and under what conditions ($$$).https://english.kyodonews.net/articles/-/72724
Steckt Jeffrey Epstein hinter #Bitcoin? Via Philipp Mattheis @PhilippMattheis https://open.substack.com/pub/blingbling/p/die-epstein-bitcoin-connection?r=dq4uq&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay
Viele Geopolitik-Schwurbler sagen, es wird bald eine False-Flag-Attacke auf die Al-Aqsa-Moschee in #Jerusalem und die Geburtskirche geben.
Was man gegen False Flags tun kann, ist daraufhinweisen, bevor sie geschehen. Das sei hiermit getan. #falseflag
Den #Ulmen-Skandal kann man so nicht "inszenieren". Aber natürlich springen nun alle möglichen Politiker auf das Thema, um eine #Klarnamenpflicht im Internet populär zu machen.
Aasgeier, wie @AlexWallasch richtig sagt.
This is some seriously big news
Iran reportedly fired off two ballistic missiles at the joint U.S.–U.K. base on Diego Garcia island in the Indian Ocean and that’s nearly 4,000 kilometers away from Iran!!
you can't do a ceasefire if the leaders have been assassinated.
Let's be clear, everything is plummeting more or less equally. That points to a liquidity crisis, which points to leveraged positions scrambling for dollars. Not because that's the 'right' thing to do, but because that's what the contracts require. Here's a clue from yesterday.
what happens to a singularity that substitutes human intellect with energy when the price of energy goes up 5x?
x.com/i/article/203506651358…
BREAKING: The Nasdaq 100 falls over -1% as the US announces up to 2,500 additional Marines are being deployed to the Middle East.
How many years will pass before they start blaming Europeans for not stopping their “excursion” in Iran?
Relative change is indeed enormous. Inflation-adjusted oil prices are still low though
based Schwurbler-Take. Mal sehen… #Ulmen
This is indeed interesting
Im Börsenwecker geht es heute um Öl- und Gasunternehmen - die heimlichen Gewinner der Krise. #Exxon #shell
With global energy prices going vertical, the next metrics to watch are recession probabilities of net energy importers - particularly in South and Southeast Asia