Dings... hab jetzt 10 Bücher geschrieben, 4 TV-Formate produziert und über 2500 Videos gedroppt... aber noch NIE einen richtigen Film!
Wird langsam Zeit... aber brauche eure Hilfe, uallah?
Crowdfunding für "Dies Das Ananas" läuft! 🍍
Sehen uns bei der Premiere.
BREAKING AND UNUSUAL NEWS
Cheng Li‑wen, Chairwoman of Taiwan’s Kuomintang (KMT) party, arrived in Shanghai at noon today at the head of a party delegation, marking the start of an official visit to mainland China.
Im Börsenwecker geht es heute um den @citrini report an der Straße von Hormuz. Was passiert dort wirklich?
Is this a warning sign of a private credit crisis, or just market panic? Blue Owl Capital, often considered a poster child for the private credit boom, closed at a record low as worries grow about the health of the $1.8tn market. The stock fell 1.4% to $8.45, slipping below its previous low from late 2022. It is now down 68% from its all-time high.
BREAKING: Iran has delivered its highly anticipated "10-point" response to the US' "15-point peace plan."
Iran's 10-point plan includes:
1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again
2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire
3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon
4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran
5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies
6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz
7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship
8. Iran would split these fees with Oman
9. Iran to provide rules for safe passage through Hormuz
10. Iran to use Hormuz fees for reconstruction instead of reparations
President Trump's "deadline" for a peace deal with Iran is 25 hours away.
This is the most ridiculous thing I have ever seen
Before Sunrise is unwatchable because it's so good. It's such a beautiful encapsulation of young iPhoneless love, shot on analog film, a nineties time machine of a mysterious Europe that no longer exists, you feel like you are dying as you watch it.
BREAKING: Iran has rejected a temporary ceasefire proposal and said it has formulated a response to the US’ demands to end the war, per Reuters.
Iran's Foreign Ministry says they will announce their response to the US’ 15-point plan "when necessary."
BREAKING: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns private credit losses will be “larger than expected.”
BREAKING: The US, Iran, and a group of regional mediators are discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the Iran War, per Axios.
Details include:
1. This is being described as a "last-ditch effort" to prevent "massive strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure"
2. Mediators are discussing the terms for two-phased deal; the first phase would a potential 45-day ceasefire during which a permanent end to the war would be negotiated
3. A US official said Trump gave Iran several proposals in recent days, but so far Iranian officials have not accepted
4. The sources said the chances for reaching a partial deal over the next 48 hours are still "slim"
US stock market futures have erased all losses.
Qatar is attempting to send LNG shipments through Hormuz for first time since the Iran war started 🚨🚨
If successful, this would be the first time a loaded LNG tanker has gone through Hormuz in over a month. ~20% of global LNG supply traverses Hormuz, so would be a big deal
JAMES WYNN: HYPERLIQUIDATED
James Wynn has just been liquidated shorting Bitcoin.
He once had $100M - his account is now down to its last $900.
Strait of Hormuz: A CitriniResearch Field Trip
The Field Report from Analyst #3 is live.
https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/strait-of-hormuz-a-citrini-field
While calling Iranians "crazy bastards," Trump is actually the very manifestation of Einstein's definition of insanity: bombing Iran got Hormuz closed, bombing it harder isn't exactly the way to get it reopened 🤷♂️
In fact if anything I suspect it strengthens Iranians' resolve: Trump's obvious desperation is proof they have real leverage...
Gut zusammengefasst, worum es eigentlich geht bei der Einschränkung der Reisefreiheit
We were so innocent once:
Trump Easter message, 2015: I wish everyone, including the haters and losers, a very happy Easter!
Easter Sunday, 2026: Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell … Praise be to Allah
Optical stocks have become the hottest trade in the AI space:
Lumentum, $LITE, is up +1,137% over the last 12 months, the 2nd-best performing stock in the S&P 500.
Over the same period, Applied Optoelectronics, $AAOI, is up +551%, Coherent, $COHR, +282%, Corning, $GLW, +223%, and Fabrinet, $FN, +176%.
This marks a massive outperformance of the Nasdaq 100, which returned +23%.
These companies make optical components that use light instead of traditional copper wiring to move data inside AI data centers.
This technology has gained popularity as AI infrastructure demands faster and more efficient communication.
In early March, Nvidia, $NVDA, announced it would invest $2 billion each in Lumentum and Coherent.
Optical stocks are the latest beneficiary of the AI boom.
Pinned: x.com/i/article/204061330076…
BREAKING: According to my Israeli sources, unfortunately, the Bushehr nuclear reactor in Iran has been placed on the target list of the IDF to be struck after the end of Trump's ultimatum. Russia has evacuated all of its workers at Israel’s request.
This is going to cause major radioactive pollution in the Persian Gulf region—Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia will be exposed. The lives of not only Iranians but also people in these countries will be affected by this action.
#OperationEpicFury #OperationLionsRoar
New Delhi confirms its buying oil from Iran (after US eased sanctions):
“… Indian refiners have secured their crude oil requirements, including from Iran; and there is no payment hurdle for Iranian crude imports…”
Änderung im Wehrdienst-Modernisierungsgesetz trat weitgehend unbemerkt in Kraft. Demnach müssen Millionen Männer vor längeren Auslandsaufenthalten eine Genehmigung der Bundeswehr einholen. https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/news/neue-wehrpflicht-regel-junge-maenner-duerfen-deutschland-nicht-mehr-laengere-zeit-ohne-genehmigung-verlassen-li.10028539?utm_campaign=mrf-twitter-berlinerzeitung&mrfcid=2026040469ce2203eea0e1698bc31d6e
The Third Gulf War (aka, the ‘Hormuz War’) is entering into its 6th week, at the very end of the initial White House guidance of a 4-6 week campaign.
For the oil market, we are into demand destruction territory, although further releases of the SPR may help to buy time a bit.
Besonders perfide ist, dass diese neue Regelung klammheimlich eingeführt wurde. Bisher übrigens nichts dazu in SZ, Spiegel oder Tagesschau…
BREAKING: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is reportedly "paranoid" about losing his job, which Trump Admin officials say contributed to the firing of the US Army’s top general on Thursday, per NY Post.
Details include:
1. Trump Admin officials say Pete Hegseth is worried about Army Secretary Dan Driscoll taking his job
2. Hegseth on Thursday demanded the resignation of Army Chief of Staff General Randy George, Driscoll’s top aide, for reasons that were not publicly stated
3. "This is all driven by the insecurity and paranoia that Pete has developed since Signalgate," an official said
4. "It has really gotten under Hegseth’s skin. He is trying to make everyone around Driscoll suffer for no reason," an official said
There seem to be growing tensions at the Department of War.
2026, day 94
Good morning from Asia.
‘Pakistan-led efforts for US-Iran ceasefire reportedly hit dead end’ (Al Arabiya);
‘Iran Is Quickly Repairing Missile Bunkers, U.S. Intelligence Says’ (NYT);
‘China fuelling Iran’s ballistic missiles’ (Telegraph);
‘Downed planes raise new perils for Trump as Tehran hunts for missing US pilot’ (Reuters);
‘US special forces enter Iran to rescue downed airman’ (Telegraph);
‘UAE Gas Plant, Kuwait Oil Refinery Hit in Latest Iran Attacks’ (BBG);
‘At least one killed at UAE’s Habshan gas facility after intercepted attack’ (Al Jazeera) - “UAE says largest gas facility, Habshan, suffered ‘significant damage’ after air defence interception sparked fires”;
‘US intelligence warns Iran unlikely to ease Hormuz Strait chokehold soon, sources say’ (Reuters);
‘Omani, French and Japanese vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz’ (Al Jazeera);
‘Trump says US can take Strait of Hormuz with more time and control oil to ‘make a fortune’’ (Reuters);
‘Hegseth’s ‘paranoia’ of being replaced explains purge of top general — as ally emerges for Army secretary’s role’ (NYPost);
‘Israel destroys east Lebanon bridge, hits south Beirut’ (AFP);
‘IDF says disarming Hezbollah unrealistic without full-scale invasion as troops push towards Litani’ (JPost);
‘It’s time to reinvent NATO, says Ukraine’s envoy to the alliance’ (Politico);
‘5 ways Trump could destroy NATO’ (Politico);
‘NATO slides into Trump-induced coma’ (Axios);
‘Relationship with Trump may be beyond repair, Keir Starmer told’ (Guardian);
‘Australia’s 180-degree shift from 5 years ago: China in favour; US out’ (SCMP);
‘China’s gravity-detecting SQUID gets closer to spotting US nuclear submarines’ (SCMP);
‘No more ‘cold peace’ across Taiwan Strait: former KMT chairwoman calls to rebuild trust’ (SCMP);
‘Cuba to free 2,010 prisoners as US pressure ratchets up’ (Reuters);
In geoeconomics, ‘Trump Seeks $1.5 Trillion for Military, the Largest Request in Modern History’ (WSJ) - “Proposal calls for cuts to nonmilitary spending, including funding for education and the EPA”;
‘Emirates Aluminium Says Output Recovery Might Take Up to 12 Months’ (WSJ);
‘Data center security must change after Iran attacks: Microsoft president’ (Nikkei Asia) - “Mideast war will lead to more collaboration with governments, Brad Smith says”;
‘‘India is going to face a food crisis’: Farmers panic over fertiliser shortages amid Iran war’ (Guardian);
‘Miliband expected to block North Sea oil drilling’ (Telegraph) - “Energy Secretary said to be unwavering in his opposition despite impending fuel shortages and surging oil prices”;
‘Westpac CEO Warns Iran War May Spark Recession in Australia’ (BBG);
‘Trump tariff tweaks smooth the way for EU-US trade deal approval’ (Politico);
‘‘Turning point’ for global pharma trade, industry warns after Trump tariff decision’ (Euractiv);
‘‘No credible exit’: China takes on BHP to reorder a $276b market’ (AFR) - “Beijing is using a powerful but opaque entity to challenge the pricing clout of the world’s top iron ore producers”;
In politics, ‘US judge upholds block of subpoenas in criminal investigation of Jay Powell’ (FT);
‘Vance to focus fraud efforts on Democratic states, Trump says’ (Reuters);
‘Exit of Trump officials including FBI director Patel under discussion, Atlantic reports’ (Reuters);
‘French-Palestinian MEP Rima Hassan to be tried for 'advocating terrorism' in X post’ (France24);
‘Japan weighs tighter income requirement for permanent residency’ (Nikkei Asia);
‘China Probes Politburo Member in Widest Purge Since 1976’ (BBG);
In markets, ‘Private credit sector stresses could be catastrophic, but not just yet’ (Reuters);
‘Inflation Hangs Over Risk Assets as War Drags On’ (BBG)
BREAKING:
Ukrainian forces are attacking Russian vessels in the Mediterranean Sea out of new bases they’ve established in Libya.
200+ Ukrainian soldiers have arrived in Libya according to Radio France Internationale (RFI).
The French public broadcaster's article reveals details of a covert Ukrainian military presence in Libya as part of a broader "shadow war" between Ukraine and Russia on the African continent.
More than 200 Ukrainian officers and technical experts have deployed in western Libya with the explicit approval of the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) led by Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dbeibah.
They operate from three main sites:
- The Air Force Academy in Misrata
- A drone launch facility in Zaouia
- A coordination center near Tripoli International Airport
In exchange for their being allowed to hit Russian ships, Ukraine provides drone training to Libyan forces, with potential longer-term deals on arms supplies and investment in Libyan oil.
The presence is linked to Ukrainian operations targeting Russia’s shadow fleet.
RFI sources claim Ukrainian forces launched attacks from Libyan territory on March 3rd, striking the Russian LNG tanker
Arctic Metagaz and in December 2005, striking the oil tanker Kandil, which RFI links to the death of a high-ranking Russian intelligence officer Andrey Averyanov and several other Russian intelligence officers on board.
Folgendes wird passieren, wenn Protest lauter wird: "Faktenchecks" großer Medien. Wird heißen: Stimmt so nicht. Ganz anders gemeint. Gab es ja schon. Kein Grund zur Sorge usw. Ja, so wie bei Corona. Es wird keinen Lockown geben etc. Allein was hier steht: demokrat. Zumutung!
Notice how quickly all that bullshit about liberating Iranians disappeared, and now it's all about bombing them back to the Stone Age, destroying their bridges and universities, poisoning their air and water, and stealing their oil.
The current policy mix of Trump is a 180 from his campaign. There isn’t even any nuance, it’s literally the EXACT opposite.
Pope Leo has urged Israeli President Herzog to "reopen all paths of dialogue" to end the Iran war.
I’m increasingly worried about the geopolitics of the Iran War, but less so about the market impact.
1) the situation in the strait can’t really get any worse. Even if US puts boots on the ground or if the war drags on for 6 months, it doesn’t change the Hormuz equation. We are likely at or close to peak fear
2) the market will slowly adapt - countries will strike deals with Iran and find alternatives. It’s costly and inefficient as hell and might have cost us a cutting season, but given time and incentive - the market always finds a way.
3) Trump’s weekly wheel is designed to give you hope on Monday/Tuesday and suck it out of you by the weekend. Will happen next week as well. Zoom out and look at the big picture.
However, geopolitically 👇
New day, more questions.
How does destroying Iranian bridges contribute to Trump’s original goal of eliminating Iran’s nuclear threat and triggering a true regime change? Concerning the latter, what can change if the Iranian people literally have nowhere to go when the attacks end?
Ja, und Ihre Menschenrechte haben gerade das Pasteur Institut in Teheran zerbombt...
Turkey sold 15% of its entire gold inventory to defend the lira and to fund energy purchases (not to mention various "slippages")
Pinned: Einmal im Monat veröffentliche ich einen Investment-Newsletter mit einem Musterdepot. Den gibt es zusammen mit einem Paid-Abo von BlingBling! In der aktuellen Ausgabe geht es um Strategien für die Energie-Krise.
https://blingbling.substack.com/p/strategien-fur-die-krise