Der Iran-Krieg ist wahrscheinlich die größte Dummheit im Leben von Donald Trump. Für Europa kommt der Konflikt in einer ohnehin schon herausfordernden Situation. Bemerkenswert, wie deutsche “Eliten” trotzdem den bis vor zwei Wochen noch unbeliebten US-Präsidenten jetzt unterstützen. Selbst in den USA ist mehr Opposition.
If wrestling isn’t real, explain this.
Many assume the Iran war will end quickly, which is plausible.
But it shouldn't be your only scenario.
Here, I outline an alternative scenario: a prolonged conflict and its implications for markets.
Not my base case, but worth considering.
Full macro note tomorrow.
LNG shipping rates soar 650% from $40,000 to $300,000 per day.
"We must learn from history, and you cannot play Russian roulette with the fate of millions of people." - Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez, who appears to be first EU leader to be openly challenging the rationale behind the Iran war.
BREAKING: President Trump has brokered a "multimillion-dollar" gold deal between the US and Venezuela, per Axios.
Details include:
1. Venezuela's state-owned mining company, Minerven, agrees to sell up to 1,000 kilograms of gold destined for US markets
2. Trafigura will "shepherd" the gold to US refineries under a separate arrangement with the US government
3. The contract calls for 98% final gold content, sources say
4. The deal could be worth more than $150 million
The US is eying Venezuela's gold.
x.com/i/article/202928927772…
BREAKING: Bitcoin rises above $74,000 for the first time since February 4th.
If wrestling is fake, explain this
BREAKING: Qatar is set to fully shut natural gas liquefaction today, two sources close to the matter say.
Restarting natural gas liquefaction after a complete shutdown would take 2 weeks.
Once restarted, Qatar would need at least another 2 weeks to reach full capacity.
Qatar is the 2nd largest LNG exporter in the world.
unbelievable, another #TACO😂😂
Pinned: x.com/i/article/202911937026…
Sehr gut! Ab dem Alter von vier Jahren sollte jedes Kind wissen, wie gerecht die Gewalt des freien Westens ist. Dann lassen die sich später auch richtig schön verwursten.
When I listened to this episode of Joe Rogan with Andreas Antonopolous in 2016 it made sense because I was new to Bitcoin.
But now in 2024 we all can see that Andreas was 100% right. This is exactly what's happening in our society right now.
1929 stürzte die Welt in eine Jahre andauernde Wirtschaftskrise. https://www.tichyseinblick.de/podcast/tichys-boersenwecker-am-4-maerz-2026/ Heute aber funktioniert das System grundlegend anders: Börsencrashs sind heftig, aber langfristig geht es im Fiat-System immer nach oben. Warum eigentlich? Warum man sich über einen Crash freuen darf – der TE-Börsenwecker mit @PhilippMattheis
Chaos und Destabilisierung sind vermutlich der Plan Israels…
BREAKING: South Korea’s stock market falls over -8% and triggers a circuit breaker.
Maybe we were too harsh on Joe.
be greedy when others are fearful.
Do they know what fires they are unleashing?
If the Kurds agree to do this, it will have major consequences. The Turks will almost certainly intervene, at first with air strikes and then with ground forces. They might even get into a direct conflict with Israel, who they now see as a power bent on regional hegemony.
The Iranian army will be deployed in the Kurdish region to counter these proxies. The ground war is unlikely to remain confined to the region, with Shia militias from Iraq joining the fight. It may spread much further than people anticipate: Kuwait is a short drive away.
Even if the proxies backed by US-Israeli air power manage to push back the Iranian ground forces and survive Turkish pressure, that will not destabilize the regime in Tehran. It will create a breakaway province under Israeli influence. The Iranians will come back later to reclaim their territory, setting the stage for persistent conflict.
Before the Korean KOSPI crashed there was a crazy buying frenzy.
The trade became really, really lopsided long. 🫠
This is what happens during manias.
You have these wild parabolic moves that create massive FOMO.
Then late buyers get destroyed as the crowded trade implodes.
x.com/i/article/202837910351…
Parts of the German right now wrap war rhetoric in libertarian language.
That’s not liberty — it’s branding.
Ron Paul warned about exactly this.
BREAKING: Spain and Italy share markets down by 5%, Germany down 4%, while UK and France markets down 3%.
If and when Iran collapses, outside powers will be compelled to compete for influence within the husk of the regime. This would lead to large scale instability and massive flows of migrants into Europe.
Viele konnten über Trumps Marotten hinwegsehen, weil er Frieden, Prosperität und Transparenz versprach. Spätestens seit dem Wochenende ist da nur noch eine Neocon-Fratze.
You can now bet on German train delays
Wenn Kurden zum wiederholten Mal so blöd sind, um die Drecksarbeit für Großmächte zu erledigen...
Ja, und ein Regimewechsel im Sudan kann das deutsche Wirtschaftswachstum um 0,01 % beschleunigen, und in Nordkorea um 0,3% und in Katar um 1,2%. Da kommt schnell einiges zusammen, wenn wir die Länder alle zerbomben!
Was für ein Schwachsinnn....
Im Börsenwecker bei @TichysEinblick spreche ich heute über #Gold und die explodierenden Gaspreise - denn die kommen ja wie gerufen zum historisch niedrigem Füllstand der Gasspeicher in Deutschland #lng #katar
Senator Mark Warner is one of the ”gang of 8” in 🇺🇸 congress having access to all intelligence, and also a thoughtful man. He’s always worth listening to.
Angst vor einem Börsencrash? Freu Dich lieber darauf👇
Have not seen such a wide ranging advisory to Americans before to depart countries.
The US attacked Iran because they knew Israel was going to.
A very fresh interpretation of a pre-emptive strike 😅
Tulsi Gabbard has been quiet for four days. Can someone check on her?
Ready to print money out of nowhere?
Ein Anzeichen dafür, dass dieser Konflikt länger dauern und die Weltwirtschaft stärker treffen wird. Bisher hat der #Ölpreis verhalten reagiert, noch mehr solche Angriffe und er wird tatsächlich in Richtung 100$ steigen.
Ein hoher Ölpreis befeuert die #Inflation und damit schränkt er den Spielraum der Zentralbanken ein, die Zinsen zu senken. Trumps gesamte Wirtschaftspolitik für die kommenden Monate aber geht von fallenden Zinsen aus. Kann sein, dass Trump das Risiko kennt und bewusst eingeht. Kann auch sein, dass er sich völlig verschätzt.
#Midterms #Fed #Iran #Aramco #Rastanura