Schon bemerkenswert: Während in Berlin gestern ein ehemaliger Dschihadist (al-Scharaa) mit Staatsempfang hofiert wurde, demonstrierten Karoline Preisler und Co. unter dem Motto „Islamisten raus aus Berlin“ gegen eine UN-Berichterstatterin (@FranceskAlb) – statt gegen ihn.
Trump can declare victory and leave, so long as he hasn't committed ground forces. Hormuz be damned; Trump can say it's NATO and Asia's problem now. Once ground troops are in, these missions tend to have their own logic, requiring more men, more terrain, more resources. It becomes much harder to withdraw, as everything in the military operation require further escalation to succeed, but success never comes.
Gute Aktien werden jetzt billig. Im Börsenwecker mit @PhilippMattheis heute ein paar Ideen für die Watchlist:
https://www.tichyseinblick.de/podcast/tichys-boersenwecker-am-31-maerz-2026/
"Es ist ein Gesetz, das schon lange geplant ist, und doch könnte es gerade kaum besser in die Zeit passen." Wie sich @derspiegel zum Erfüllungsgehilfen einer Ministerin gemacht hat...
#ulmen
https://www.zeit.de/digital/internet/2026-03/digitale-gewalt-gesetz-bundesregierung-stephanie-hubig
And there’s this…. Welcome to the fog of war.
Energy Lockdowns coming...
With all other risk (and unrisk) assets sliding during the Iran war, bitcoin remains largely unscathed, and despite giving up some recent gains it's still higher than when the bombs started
digga, die news von heute gabs auf blobTV schon vor über 2 monaten 😅
But Tel Aviv has a big Pride Parade https://x.com/Aboujahjah/status/2038697244044472485?s=20
We are starting to see what I would characterize as true capitulation.
When you see bond yields coming down sharply, even if the oil price is a tad up, while the USD strengthens and equities sell off, it smells like capitulation and a real fear that we may have passed the soft deadline beyond which the impact on the business cycle will be hard to undo.
It’s only week five this is the global picture as of today.
🇧🇩 Bangladesh - Fuel rationing active. Universities closed. Military deployed in oil depots.
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka - Fuel rationing active. 15 litre per week cap for private motorists. Four day school week. Scaled back public sector operations.
🇸🇮 Slovenia - 50 litre per day cap on fuel for private drivers. 200 litres for businesses and farmers. Indefinite.
🇵🇭 Philippines - National energy emergency declared. Four day working week in place.
🇵🇰 Pakistan - Four day work weeks and school closures still in effect.
🇲🇲 Myanmar - Alternating driving days imposed.
🇹🇭 Thailand - Diesel price cap imposed. Government officials told to work from home and limit travel. Fuel exports banned except to Cambodia and Laos.
🇻🇳 Vietnam - Tapping fuel price stabilisation fund. Officials encouraged to work from home and limit travel.
🇰🇪 Kenya - Rationing by major fuel suppliers ongoing. Rural areas already running out.
🇪🇬 Egypt - Fuel and electricity rationing active. Malls, restaurants and retailers shutting at 9pm. Illuminated billboards switched off. Government buildings closing at 6pm.
🇮🇳 India - Government phasing out LPG cylinders for households with access to piped gas to prioritise supply.
🇨🇳 China - Export ban on diesel, gasoline and aviation fuel until at least end of March.
🇰🇷 South Korea - Fuel price cap imposed. First in 30 years. Voluntary fuel conservation measures in place.
🇯🇵 Japan - Refiners requesting government release of stockpiled oil. 95% of crude imported from Gulf states.
🇪🇸 Spain - €5 billion emergency package. Tax reductions on electricity and gas. Subsidies for transport operators and farmers.
🇩🇪 Germany - BASF raising prices on goods by up to 30%.
What could be coming
🇬🇧 UK - Ministers could activate contingency powers to introduce fuel rationing at petrol stations. 80% of UK goods travel by road. IEA has advised considering carpooling and working from home to save fuel.
🇪🇺 EU - Emergency measures under discussion. Storage across many member states below 30%.
Shell's CEO warned Europe could face fuel rationing starting in April if the Strait stays closed.
G7 finance ministers, energy ministers and central bank governors met in Paris today and issued a joint statement saying they stand ready to take "all necessary measures" to preserve stability in energy markets.
None of these restrictions have been easing. In several countries they are only getting worse.
You can't make this up:
Iran's trading advice to US investors actually worked.
At 4:12 PM ET on Sunday, Iran's Speaker of the Parliament said pre-market news is a "reverse indicator" and if they "dump" the market, then "go long."
At 6:00 PM ET, S&P 500 futures opened nearly -1% lower and fell just 30 points away from correction territory.
By 11:00 PM ET, S&P 500 futures had reversed all losses and turned green.
Then, at 7:25 AM ET today, President Trump posted that "great progress" is being made on Iran peace talks.
Now, the S&P 500 is trading +100 points above its low seen just hours ago, adding +$900 billion in market cap.
We are in the most unusual times in market history.
Honestly such an unhinged post.
Bed of jawbone, pinch of "probably will be", and finished with a dash of deeply irresponsible war crime threats that also risk spiraling energy facility attacks to a place from out of which it will take *years* to climb.
China exporting diesel to Southeast Asia is not only a soft power move to show China is a responsible power but also means China is not worried about oil supply.
South Korea leading the way on energy lockdowns. Europe will definitely need energy lockdowns at some point. Less likely in America, but certainly possible. 🇰🇷
🇯🇵📉NIKKEI 225 CLOSED DOWN 2.79%, AT 51885.85 (https://mktnews.com/flashDetail.html?id=019d3d70-72a1-7cc4-bf2a-a58e63261442)
🇰🇷📉KOSPI INDEX CLOSED DOWN 2.97%, AT 5277.28 (https://mktnews.com/flashDetail.html?id=019d3d70-9508-7cc4-bf2a-afac2b0ad403)
Was tun, wenn die Märkte crashen? Vier Regeln für Investoren heute im Börsenwecker @TichysEinblick
Money printer warming up…
My father is 83 years old and has studied US stocks for almost 52 years.
He summarized some simple rules for beginners:
1. Price falls 5% → Hold
2. Price falls 15% → Buy 10%
3. Price falls 25% → Buy 25%
4. Price rises 5% → Continue holding
5. Price rises 15% → Continue holding
6. Price rises 25% → Sell 10%
7. Price rises 35% → Sell 20%
8. Price rises 45% → Sell 30%
9. Price rises 60% → Sell 40%
10. Price rises 100% → Sell everything
Discipline + patience = stable long-term growth.
(Save this later).
BREAKING: Bitcoin drops below $65,000 as the Iran War hits day 30.
Current situation:
1. Iran is providing investment advice to US traders claiming pre-market news is a "reverse indicator"
2. The US is removing sanctions on Russian crude oil
3. Russia is assisting Iran with intelligence and strikes on US bases
4. China is actively calling for an immediate end to the Iran War
5. Spain has banned the US from using their military bases for strikes on Iran
6. President Trump is saying the US no longer needs NATO
Talk about a turn of events.
"Wir kaufen armen Ländern das Öl weg". Ein Gespräch mit Ökonom Fabian Wintersberger @f_wintersberger über die #Iran-Krise und die kommende Inflationswelle. Von Philipp Mattheis @PhilippMattheis https://substack.com/home/post/p-192070581?source=queue
For the german speakers: I had the pleasure to talk with Philipp about the war, oil prices, inflation, historical analogies and other things.
Check it out 👇
Professor Jiang was right. JFC.
🚨 Do you understand what happened in the last 72 hours..
> Egypt shut down its shops at 9pm, mandated work-from-home Sundays, and the government internally called it "war economy mode".. four days after the IMF praised them and unlocked $2,300,000,000..
> Turkey's central bank burned through $30,000,000,000 in March defending the lira.. the finance minister everyone called a genius is now considering SELLING the national gold reserves..
> Pakistan's PM went on national TV on Eid and announced government salary cuts and a 50% fuel allocation reduction.. they approved a $358,000,000 "austerity fund" and nobody asked austerity from what..
> Russia banned cash exports above $100,000 and gold bars above 100 grams.. Putin signed it March 26.. called it fighting the shadow economy..
> Iraq banned 22 banks from USD transactions.. cashless mandate for ALL government institutions coming July 2026..
> South Korea launched a literal wartime economic response body on March 25.. the prime minister chairs it..
> India secretly created a $6,700,000,000 Economic Stabilisation Fund.. it wasn't in the news.. it was buried in a budget supplement..
> Lebanon's currency collapsed 98%.. the war added $14,000,000,000 in damage on top..
every single government on this list told their citizens "the economy is doing fine" within the last 30 days..
all of this.. a single week..
if you're not following me you're finding out about this 48 hours late from someone who read my post..
it's only getting crazier from here..
If it actually happens, will be another huge down wee
Emphasis on If since this stuff flip flops every 12 hours now, up from 48 hours
Pinned: In your inboxes: Wie die #Energiekrise erst die armen, dann alle Länder der Welt trifft. Ein Gespräch mit Ökonom @f_wintersberger über die reale Krise und die auf den Finanzmärkten. #Iran #Öl
https://blingbling.substack.com/p/wir-kaufen-armen-landern-das-ol-weg
2026, day 88
Good morning from Asia.
‘Houthi missile attack signals ‘serious’ escalation in Iran war’ (FT);
‘Israel warns Houthis will ‘pay the price’ for entering war’ (Telegraph) - “Yemeni terror group threatens to blockade Red Sea shipping lane after launching missile strikes”;
‘Iranian-backed militias escalate in Iraq’ (JPost);
‘Baghdad orders probe after drone targets Kurdistan president’s home’ (Reuters);
‘US Marines Arrive in Middle East’ (WSJ);
‘Pentagon prepares for weeks of ground operations in Iran’ (WaPo);
‘IDF says almost done targeting ‘critical’ Iranian military sites as waves of strikes hit Tehran’ (ToI);
‘Iran threatens to hit US universities in the Middle East in retaliation for alleged strike on two universities’ (AFP);
‘Rift deepens between Iran’s president and Guards chief over war, economy’ (Iran International) - “Without a ceasefire, Iran’s economy could face total collapse within three weeks to one month”;
‘Ukraine Finalizes Air Defense Deals With Gulf Nations Amid War in Mideast’ (NYT);
‘Inside Ukraine's secret drone warfare juggernaut’ (Kyiv Independent) - “Singlehandedly, Ukraine has ushered in a revolutionary new era of air, sea, and land-based warfare, which is quickly emerging as a staggeringly powerful tool of armed combat”;
‘'Saudi pact becoming a problem for us': Why Pak wants to host US-Iran peace talks’ (Times of India);
‘Pakistan to host Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt for talks on Iran war’ (Al Arabiya);
‘Don't strike a deal with Iran's current leaders, opposition figure Pahlavi warns’ (Reuters);
‘After ceasefire, US may count on Japan to clear mines in Strait of Hormuz’ (Nikkei Asia) - “Last US naval minesweeper set to be retired as soon as 2027”;
‘Secret plan to rescue thousands of Britons from Middle East if Trump launches Iran ground invasion 'now being drawn up'’ (Daily Mail);
‘Israel's campaign to sever southern Lebanon in a new ‘buffer zone’’ (Reuters);
‘China assembles fleet of attack drones near Taiwan’ (Telegraph) - “Satellite images show Chinese J-6 ‘Farmer’ jets stationed at six bases located near the island and would take minutes to reach the territory”;
‘Australia will be left with no submarines if it abandons Aukus, senior defence official warns’ (Guardian);
In geoeconomics, ‘Houthis' entry into Iran war raises fears of global shipping disruption in Red Sea’ (AFP);
‘UK ‘weeks away’ from medicine shortages if Iran war continues, experts say’ (Guardian);
‘Middle East’s Top Aluminum Maker Says Main Smelter Damaged’ (BBG);
‘New Delhi Street Stalls Show the Cost of India’s Energy Crunch’ (BBG);
‘Inside the Trans-Atlantic Trade in Iranian Weapons for Colombian Coke’ (WSJ);
‘Iraq’s economy teeters as oil sales collapse’ (FT);
‘On Canada's tariff frontline, business stalls over US trade deal jitters’ (Reuters);
‘EU plot to seize Chagos fishing rights after Starmer’s surrender’ (Telegraph) - “One of world’s largest protected marine areas at risk of ‘catastrophic’ exploitation by French and Spanish vessels”;
‘South Korean chip giants step up China investments to combat global AI memory shortage’ (SCMP);
‘China chip sector targets 80% self-sufficiency with US in its sights’ (Nikkei Asia) - “Asian giant's ambitions include creating homegrown version of Dutch lithography giant ASML”;
‘Japan to promote research and development for dual-use technology’ (Japan Times);
‘Economists found a ‘give up’ cliff. Young Australians are teetering’ (AFR) - “There is a tipping point where young people, overwhelmed by the widening gap between effort and outcome, begin to disengage from traditional financial goals”;
In politics, ‘Crowds Gather Across U.S. for ‘No Kings’ Rallies to Oppose Trump’ (WSJ);
‘Thousands march against far right in London in biggest ever multicultural protest’ (Guardian);
‘Supreme Court mulls limiting mail-in ballots, forcing states to prepare for changes’ (The Hill);
‘Hastie to Liberals: no medals for neoliberalism’s last stand’ (Australian)
US ground war in Vietnam started with deployment of 3,500 Marines to secure airport in Da Nang in 1965
The Iran War has wiped $12 TRILLION from global markets; more than the entire economies of Germany, Japan, and the UK combined.
BREAKING: In a major escalation, Yemen's Houthi Group has officially joined the war with a ballistic missle launch at Israel, just as the war hit its one-month mark.
All eyes are now on the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
If closed, the world loses another ~6 million barrels of daily oil supply.
Hal Finney described Bitcoin in 1993.
The Houthis have joined the war. The Red Sea is now closed. The world is facing down a world historic energy crisis. 🇾🇪
Global stocks set for worst month since 2022