SZwanglos – Following Feed

I have been sent this chart in various forms many times. It is misleading resulting in wrong conclusions, so I decided to address the issue. Yes, China generates more than double the US. But that number stripped of context is almost meaningless. 1. Population is the most obvious correction. China has roughly 1.425 billion people. The US has about 348 million. China has 4.25 times the population on nearly identical land mass (9.6 million km² versus 9.8 million km²). When you normalize for population, the story inverts completely. The US consumes about 12,700 kWh per person versus China at roughly 7,100 kWh. The average American consumes nearly 80% more electricity per person than the average Chinese citizen. On a per capita basis, the US is the electricity hog, not China. 2. China is the world's factory floor. It produces over half the world's steel, cement, and aluminum. Heavy manufacturing is one of the most electricity intensive economic activities that exists, and China does it at a scale no other country approaches. Manufacturing accounts for roughly 28% of China's GDP versus about 11% for the US. Industry consumes roughly 60% of China's electricity, while in the US the split runs approximately 38% residential, 36% commercial, and 26% industrial. Much of China's electricity "consumption" is actually being consumed on behalf of the rest of the world through exported goods. When an American buys a Chinese made EV, solar panel, or aluminum product, the electricity embedded in that manufacturing shows up in China's statistics, not America's. This is effectively offshored electricity demand. 3. Electrification rate tells you something critical too. China routes roughly 28% to 32% of its total final energy consumption through the electrical grid, compared to about 22% for the US. The US burns enormous quantities of natural gas directly for space heating, water heating, and industrial process heat without converting it to electricity first. If the US electrified at China's rate, American electricity consumption would be dramatically higher. The comparison isn't electricity versus electricity. It's two countries using fundamentally different pathways to deliver energy to end users. 4. GDP per unit of electricity exposes the services versus manufacturing divide. The US generates roughly $28 trillion in GDP off about 4,100 TWh, working out to roughly $6.80 of economic output per kWh. China generates roughly $18 trillion off 10,000 TWh, or about $1.80 per kWh. This doesn't mean China is wasteful. It means China's economy is physically producing things while the US economy is weighted toward services, finance, software, and healthcare, activities that generate high GDP per unit of electricity. 5. Climate and geography add another layer. While land mass is nearly identical, population distribution is radically different. Most of China's 1.4 billion people are concentrated in the eastern third of the country, creating enormous urban electricity demand centers. Large swaths of western China are sparsely populated desert and mountain terrain. China's sheer urban density in cities like Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Chongqing creates electricity demand profiles unlike anything in the US outside of maybe the New York metro area. The takeaway: the raw TWh number tells you almost nothing useful by itself. Per capita consumption still shows the US as the heavier user. Industrial structure means a large share of China's generation serves global supply chains, not Chinese consumers. Electrification rate differences mean the two countries aren't even measuring equivalent things. And GDP intensity reflects two economies at fundamentally different stages of structural composition. Anyone using the "10,000 TWh versus 4,500 TWh" framing without this context is either uninformed or being deliberately selective.

“By 2050, the GDP of the EU will be about half the size of China’s. And yet the EU countries speak condescendingly toward China and have blocked deals that would productively strengthen ties, such as the EU-Chinese investment agreement.” https://reader.foreignaffairs.com/2026/02/17/the-dream-palace-of-the-west/content.html

“Hallelujah” - following the verdict against Yoon Suk-yeol, the loyal supporters of the former President lick their wounds in Central Seoul.

1/ South Korean lawmakers are pushing to restrict presidential pardons for insurrection and treason convictions. The proposed amendment passed a parliamentary subcommittee, with the ruling party aiming to pass it within February. https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20260220146800001?input=1195m

Guys, American manufacturing is dying. The only bright spot was extremely efficient Chinese intermediates. And now that’s over bc our bipartisan China panic.

Mark pretends to care about Iranian proliferation but in reality uses the nuclear issue as a smokescreen for regime change. If he truly wanted to stop an Iranian bomb, he wouldn’t have spent years advocating for the destruction of a deal that prevented it from happening.

#Vietnam’s economy nears a pivotal leap past #Thailand Backed by sweeping public investment and a strategic supply chain shift, Vietnam is positioning itself to surpass Thailand in economic scale as early as 2026-2027. "Without serious reform, Thailand may lose its competitive edge and ultimately fall behind Vietnam.” Vietnam's 2025 GDP was $514 Bn, Thailand's was $559 Bn. Vietnam's 2025 GDP growth was 8% and Thailand's was 2%. Vietnam’s economy stands at the threshold of a historic inflection point. With resilient growth forecasts and a powerful wave of high-tech supply chain relocation, the country’s nominal GDP is poised to overtake Thailand in the near future, potentially redrawing the economic map of Southeast Asia. The regional landscape is undergoing structural change. While Thailand, long the second-largest economy in Southeast Asia, faces mounting challenges from demographic aging to geopolitical volatility, Vietnam has emerged as a magnet for foreign direct investment and advanced manufacturing. According to the latest data from Nikkei Asia and a report by Bangkok Bank, Vietnam is rapidly narrowing the gap and could surpass Thailand in nominal GDP as early as 2026-2027. Vietnam accelerates on public investment and structural upgrade Estimates show Vietnam’s real GDP growth reached approximately 8 percent in 2025. The government aims to sustain double-digit expansion from 2026 onward. If this trajectory holds, Vietnam’s nominal GDP could approach US$600 billion by 2026 or 2027. At that point, the country would overtake Thailand to become Southeast Asia’s third-largest economy, behind Indonesia and Singapore, with per capita GDP exceeding US$5,000. The primary driver of this acceleration is an ambitious infrastructure strategy. The government has announced plans to invest the equivalent of 10 percent of GDP - around VND1.5 quadrillion (approximately US$60 billion) - in infrastructure projects between 2026 and 2030. According to Nikkei, Can Van Luc, Chief Economist at the Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV), forecasts that public investment in 2026 will rise by about 26 percent, directly contributing 1.6 percentage points to economic growth compared to 2025. A series of flagship projects is being fast-tracked, including Long Thanh International Airport, expected to begin operations in 2026, and new railway lines linking northern provinces. At the same time, deep-sea ports and the North-South expressway network are gradually taking shape, transforming Vietnam from a low-cost assembly hub into a critical logistics node in the region. Shan Saeed, Global Chief Economist at Malaysia-based property technology group IQI Juwai, believes Vietnam is entering a decisive phase of economic maturity. The country’s competitive edge is no longer anchored solely in expanding low-cost manufacturing capacity. Instead, it is shifting toward structural upgrading. High-tech sectors such as electronics, semiconductors, precision engineering and advanced components now account for more than 30 percent of total manufacturing output. Vietnam’s electronics exports have surpassed US$120 billion, overtaking several regional competitors, including Thailand, in this segment. Rapid integration into electric vehicle and advanced component supply chains is helping Vietnam narrow the technological depth gap with Malaysia and gain an advantage over Indonesia, which remains more dependent on commodity-related production. Meanwhile, high-value services are expanding swiftly, supporting Vietnam’s transition toward a multi-engine growth model. The services sector currently contributes around 42 percent of GDP, underscoring its increasingly important role alongside manufacturing. With more than one million IT professionals, Vietnam’s digital and information technology services continue to record double-digit growth, gradually converging toward the service-led development model seen in the Philippines. Thailand confronts economic headwinds In contrast, Thailand faces significant constraints. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development forecasts that Thailand’s real GDP will grow just 1.5 percent in 2026, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous year. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, Thailand’s average growth has hovered between 2.7 and 3.0 percent. Demographics pose one of the country’s most formidable challenges. With a median age of 40 - compared with 30 in Vietnam - Thailand is aging rapidly, leading to labor shortages and rising healthcare costs. High household debt is also weighing on domestic consumption. The automotive industry, long a source of national pride, is showing signs of strain as Japanese manufacturers reassess their strategies. In 2025, Suzuki Motor withdrew from automobile production in Thailand, while Honda Motor scaled back operations. Declining new car sales further reflect this shift. In Indonesia, the region’s largest market, vehicle sales in the first 10 months of 2025 fell 10 percent, with Thailand experiencing a similar trend. Beyond internal economic factors, geopolitical tensions have added pressure. Border frictions with Cambodia that began in May and escalated in December last year have disrupted bilateral trade and tourism flows. Khang Vu, a scholar at Boston University, noted: “Geopolitical stability is crucial for sustaining growth in Southeast Asia. The Thailand-Cambodia border conflict exposes vulnerabilities that could unsettle foreign investors.” Thai experts speak out Vietnam’s ascent has sparked concern among segments of Thailand’s academic and business communities. Dr Nonarit Bisonyabut, Senior Research Fellow at the Thailand Development Research Institute, warned that Thailand risks falling behind. He argued that Thailand’s ambition to achieve high-income status by 2036 now appears distant, with revised projections potentially pushing the milestone to 2088-2093. “Thailand once sought to catch up with China and Malaysia, which are on track to reach high-income status by 2025 and 2030 respectively. Now, we risk reaching that benchmark at the same time as Vietnam - around 2088 - despite having set our target decades earlier,” Nonarit said. He also pointed out that Vietnam is pursuing decisive administrative reforms to enhance efficiency, while Thailand remains entangled in short-term or controversial initiatives such as cannabis liberalization and mega-projects lacking proven feasibility. “Looking ahead, China and South Korea are prioritizing Vietnam over Thailand. Both countries are winners of the digital era, with China emerging alongside the US as an AI leader. "Without serious reform, Thailand may lose its competitive edge and ultimately fall behind Vietnam,” he cautioned. Kriengkrai Thiennukul, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, likewise acknowledged that Vietnam is better positioned to capitalize on evolving global trade rules. “Vietnam demonstrates stronger competitiveness, better skills and higher GDP and export growth figures. If Thailand talks without acting - or acts too slowly - we will lose our standing,” he stressed. Poj Aramwattananont, Chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, emphasized that Vietnam’s heavy investment in infrastructure is a key strategy to sustain growth and mitigate tariff risks. Although he maintained that Thailand still retains advantages in geography and supporting industries, he admitted that investors remain hesitant amid policy uncertainty. Observers also note that Vietnam is not without risk. Its heavy reliance on exports - holding the third-largest trade surplus with the US - leaves the economy vulnerable to tariff fluctuations, particularly under the administration of US President Donald Trump. The OECD projects Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2026 could reach 6.2 percent, below the government’s 10% target, due to potential export slowdowns. Shan Saeed recommends that Vietnam focus on expanding profit margins, safeguarding intellectual property and digitizing logistics to avoid the middle-income trap. Advancing up the value chain will require sustained investment in human capital and reliable energy infrastructure. Southeast Asia’s economic future is being reshaped. While Thailand retains solid foundations in finance and healthcare, the pace and decisiveness of reform are propelling Vietnam forward, setting the stage for a remarkable shift in economic scale in the years ahead. Info via Vietnam Net Global and other financial sources.

BYD and Tesla both make EVs in China. Yet BYD has significantly lower costs. Two major factors: 1) Vertical integration is very high for BYD 2) Doing R&D in China is far cheaper State subsidies are a small part. It’s more a structural advantage. Fascinating report from Rhodium.

Nord Stream story drifting in the direction of the CIA is curious if predictable. What’s most curious is how the German government is leaking the truth it knows drop by drop, over a long period of time. So here is the status of the story today as per Spiegel: CIA was aware of Ukrainian plans and made the Ukrainians think it was endorsing them, but then it changed its mind, but couldn’t persuade the unruly Ukrainians not to do it. Believable unless you read WaPo and NYT investigations into how the Ukrainian intel agencies responsible for the attacks, according to Germany, were created from scratch by… the CIA.

South Korean government urges Japan to immediately withdraw their claims on Dokdo after Japanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Motegi Toshimitsu said earlier today that Dokdo (called as Takeshima by Japan) is "historically and legally Japanese" South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that "the (Korean) government reiterates that Japan's unjustified claims have no effect whatsoever on our sovereignty over Dokdo and reaffirms that it will respond resolutely to any provocation by Japan" and that "the Japanese government must clearly recognize that repeatedly making unjust claims over Dokdo, which is historically, geographically, and under international law indisputably our inherent territory, does nothing to help build future-oriented Korea-Japan relations."

Mit einem Außenhandelsumsatz von 251,8 Milliarden Euro war China 2025 Deutschlands wichtigster Handelspartner und löste damit die USA ab. Die Exporte von Kraftwagen und Kraftwagenteilen in die Vereinigten Staaten sanken um 17,8 %. Mehr zum #Außenhandel: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2026/02/PD26_056_51.html

I am sorry to report this, but: It appears critics of US foreign policy, once again, have committed the unforgivable sin of being right too early We apologize. We are listening and learning.

Important to remember that this would-be dictator was praised to the skies and even nominated for a Nobel Prize by Joe Biden and his boys, Tony Blinken and Kurt Campbell. Why? Because he was key to their trilateral military "alliance" with LDP Japan - AOC's foreign policy model.