All Things Pandemic Update Week 47 of 2025
Abnormal Clinical & Lab Findings Mortality Hook remains elevated, at 63.5% (excess 500 deaths per week).
However, NCHS administrative teams are catching up with the backlog, as the taper curve is no longer 33 weeks - almost back to historical profile. Thank you NCHS team for addressing this backlog. 👍
The question remains as to exactly what this excess in odd lab findings mortality means, as well as portends. Young-age fentanyl deaths have reduced dramatically over the last 2 years - so these are no longer fueling this dynamic.
We continue to monitor.
Pinned: Across all major cancer-tracking indices - diagnosis rates, treatment expenditures, public and institutional attention, and mortality - a clear and consistent signal is observable.
All four inflected in temporal concurrence following the introduction of mRNA vaccination.
In systems terms, this cancer signal is coherent and persistent, with increased Shannon entropy in the cancer-type distribution—indicating a shift away from dominance by historically primary cancers toward a broader array of secondary and less common types, increasingly observed in younger age brackets compared to just seven years ago.
What makes this signal concerning is the combination of factors: the rise in less common cancers, their novel prevalence among traditionally less-susceptible cohorts, and the signal’s overall magnitude (despite a shrink-reduced candidate population)
As a system-level phenomenon, it exceeds by a wide margin, the corresponding signals historically associated with tobacco exposure, SV40, or the introduction of agricultural pesticides (Panel 4).
Week 47 of 2025 "All Things Pandemic" Update
Excess Non-Covid Natural Cause Mortality still elevated (~1900 per week), but encouraging in its direction.
Again, our method of baseline projection has proven superior, as CDC and most pundits showed death deficits for 2025 (and stopped publishing their charts accordingly). We got this right.
Total Pandemic 'Mysterious Mortality' (which began in early-mid 2021) total has topped 900,000 deaths. The trend has now paralleled the 2014 - 2019 baseline. That is encouraging and contrasts sharply with Cancer (using the same methodology in both charting analyses).
Covid-19 mortality is 66% under last year, 3-week-ma for 3-week-ma. Omicron continues to weaken, as it has done since 2017 when it hit Asia and conferred immunity to that region (Panels 3 & 4) BEFORE Wuhan. This is OBVIOUS in any reasoned assessment of the data.
Those dying of Covid now, are OLDER than the projected death age for the cohort dying of Covid. This means that Covid is often a trivial co-factor in our Covid Mortality Totals as of Nov 22 2025 ("winter of death" typical timeframe).
Week 47 of 2025 "All Things Pandemic" Update
Now for the less-encouraging news. Cancer.
From our independent data and cross-sectional analyses, this rise is not from
- Delayed screening and treatment disruption (2020–2021) - screening senstivie cancers FELL and younger age cancers (not screening senstive) ROSE. This period of disruption is over now - and yet cancer is still rising.
- Risk factor deterioration (metabolic health, diet, stress, alcohol) - these are generational effects (already reflected in the baseline) and do not inflect. This data INFLECTED HARD at Wk 14 2021.
- Aging/growing population - already in the baseline, and we lost 1.2 million older citizens during Covid. The heavy growth in cancer was in the YOUNG, not the old. Traditional older-age cancers FELL in count.
- Better diagnosis - dead is dead, in any diagnosis. Patients are dying now BEFORE cancer can be certified for the death certificate (MCoD registries soared) - this only bolsters the case.
Accordingly, we do not find support for the common backlog/behavioral hand-waving at the scale required to produce this inflection, magnitude, and persistence.
The data indicate an inflection beginning around March–April 2021, consistent with either an administrative change or a biological effect.
Only one of these two bear established mechanism. This is corroborated by diagnosis, drug use, Medicaid data, treatment expenditure, and social chatter analyses.
Week 47 of 2025 "All Things Pandemic" Update
• Encouraging News = weekly all-cause mortality continues to converge toward baseline. As the pull-forward effect (PFE) closure tapers off, and as we see better news in terms of exceess mortality, the residual excess contracts (now = 2,329 per week).
• You will notice this same chart to be missing now in CDC and other pundit updates - this is because they (and our notorious Covid trolls) used the wrong method to project mortality and ended up with DEFICITS they could not explain for 2024 and 25 - AS WE TOLD THEM WOULD HAPPEN.
Our method correctly adjusted the model from the start (in 2020), and did not produce this error. 😎 Time is the best peer review.
• Anchoring expected mortality to recurring non-winter trough structure reduced inflation of 'expected deaths' caused by volatile winter peaks and anomalous years in baseline formulation. This was key in correctly modeling excess mortality. 😎 TES was correct in using this method.
• With PFE now diminishing, week-to-week interpretation is less sensitive to that input. The remaining test: will mortality begin to rise as PFE expires over the next 103 weeks if its function?
My charts proved salient ... and now accurate. Very pleased with how these methods turned out. 🙂
"Voice in the Storm” is a heartfelt tribute & gift to my friend, @DowdEdward He might get pissed at me for sharing this on X, but I don’t care.🙂
While many brave voices spoke up during Covid, I can only speak from what I know personally: Ed carried that heavy weight quietly, never chasing glory or fame. He just told the truth with hard data because he cared deeply about people. He wanted accountability for the lies and corruption that hurt so many.
Using AI to shape this song around words from my heart is my small way of saying thank you — for the clarity, the courage, and the friendship that has meant so much to me through everything. I’m grateful to call him my dear friend.
I still pray there will be real accountability someday. Sharing this song is my tiny part of keeping the conversation alive and honoring the weight Ed carried — and still carries — for so many.
To Ed, and to *everyone* who spoke truth when it was far easier not to and who had to endure all the consequences that came with it…Thank you for being voices in the storm. 🙏❤️
Link to this video on YouTube is in comments.👇
Icarus Cautions About Using AI to Fight in War
AI assistance in C4ISR decision-making has a built-in limit, much like what happens in physics under Special Relativity. As a theater commander gains more analytic help, they can see patterns faster, coordinate actions better, and feel more certain about what is happening in their theater.
But each step up in predictive power also increases the mental and organizational 'inertia' of the model they are using. In relativity, the closer an object moves toward the speed of light, the more commitment it takes to get even closer. In the same way, the more a commander relies on a powerful analytic system, the more their decisions depend on a single framework of modeling and constraint, and the harder it becomes to question or revise the course of engagement.
What begins as clearer understanding gradually turns into firm commitment: early successes build confidence, confidence resists correction, and mistakes spread through the whole plan instead of staying small, flexible, and local in impact.
This is the same reason Kuhn–Planck paradigm-shift collapses occur in science. Method loyalty increases resistance to disconfirming evidence — eventually becoming blinding.
The result is not a hard limit to knowledge, but a growing loss of adaptability; that is, the smarter and more capable the system appears, the more costly and disruptive it becomes to change course — and the more disastrous its mistakes.
AI increases coherence and confidence. Coherence and confidence, in turn, increase correlated error — the condition in which many decisions confirm the same hidden assumptions. When that assumption set proves wrong, the error no longer remains small and local, but propagates across the entire plan. Correlated error therefore increases both the probability and the scale of catastrophic outcomes.
A normal human strategist makes many small mistakes and learns in the process. Believe me, I have made them all.
An augmented strategist tends to make initially fewer, but later larger, mistakes — when it is too late to apply the lessons learned.
The retired TES Tumi. Can't bring myself to throw this out.
Probably 4 million of 6 million frequent flier miles on this case. Every continent except for Australia and Antarctica. Fully functional office with every adaptor and comms device known, drafting/trade tools... including emergency carbs/protein and survival/med/sewing kits.
...made a small difference in peoples' lives.
If you elitesplain the murder of hundreds of thousands of young Americans under the permissive that drug cartels do not consist of 'enemy combatants':
When both thresholds are met, a Non-International Armed Conflict (NIAC) exists.
A. Sustained, organized, and intentionally harmful actions (to include black market commerce) - comparable to military operations.
B. Enacted within and by an organization that is structured (recruitment, planning, training, comms, intel, coordination, etc.) and armed (any tools of violence/arson/destruction/blockade/threat, not just guns) like a military.
Surid - not an Old Kingdom Pharaoh. Pre-inundation.
2. Case Background - The child was born prematurely at 35 weeks gestation, one week after the mother’s second dose of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer) mRNA vaccine. The child was delivered without vital signs and required emergency resuscitation.
3. Fluorescence and SEM Imaging - A detailed fluorescence microscopy report reveals widespread ThT-positive fibrillar aggregates in whole blood slide preparations.
Grok was basically invented to people could understand what @EthicalSkeptic is saying. I started following him in 2020 and have yet to figure out what he means.
My new favorite chat group on here
I still can't believe how many people I know are now dying of cancer. It was never like this before the vaccines.
The latest ECDO confirmations: 86 of 108 ancient monuments = 79.6% exhibit obsequience. The probability against random alignment now exceeds the numerical range my HP-15C can represent in scientific notation.
…along with the most widely recognized composite of ancient cartography.
The case continues to strengthen. 😎
I geocoded as many clearly identifiable features as I could reliably discern. The convergent axes are bolded on the Piri Reis map.
The darkened heart never lacks a rationale, nor a target.
Occam would because Hanlon would not see his actions as malice.
The presenter of the paradox is actually peddling its premises.
Inflation: Those who create the value and bear the risk are often strangers to those who claim the credit and reap the reward.
Occam's Razor is not a magic wand which resurrects narratives long interred in the graveyard of falsification, merely because they are simple.
An EDCO unlocking of the Piri Reis map. Suddenly the unified points of sail makes sense...
Piri Reis himself did not understand this principle, but was faithful in recreating a composite from the source maps nonetheless (thankfully).
The map is ASSEMBLED by coastline developed with magnetic compass (daytime), but all the maps ORIENT to the same celestial true north (night azimuth shot). This reconciles the map eccentricities (bending South American coastline for example).
The Piri Reis map exhibits a clear geometric regularity: the multiple compass-rose lattices preserve repeating 'dominant' directional azimuths that remain consistent across separately-derived coastal sections, and when those directions are extended beyond their local areas they triangulate at a single stable remote location (apart from the expected intersection at a compass rose ceter-reference of course) - that just happens to coincide with ECDO Theory's Np'.
Reis did not comprehend or plot Np' - his source maps did... 😀
Because the coastlines can be reconciled while the directional framework remains coherent, the most robust inference is that Piri Reis conserved a shared orientation reference inherited from his sources rather than generating an arbitrary decorative lattice himself; the probability that independent map fragments would produce the same distant conjunction by chance is extraordinarily low.
The map therefore strongly supports the existence of a common directional alignment embedded in the underlying charts - one which Reis himself did not comprehend, but still remained faithful in recreating.
The further identification of that convergence point as Np′, however, remains a probabilistic interpretation rather than a demonstrated certainty, pending independent spherical corroboration (difficult with a coastline-reconciled composite). But the probabilistic-coincidence is going to be very difficult to dismiss - now that we have mechanism behind it.
Persistent-mystery dominoes keep falling under ECDO Theory... 😎