SZwanglos – Following Feed

Warning signs. Won't help. Western Tech-Determinists still believe in the MOLE CRICKETT legend.

.@KimGhattas: “Tehran has its own reading of history and capitulation, which could be driving its current negotiating strategy. From its perspective, it is the US that has a record of retreating under fire, whether in Vietnam or, more immediately relevant, in Beirut.. in 1983..”

Interesting.

"Iran is an existential threat to the United States that requires overwhelming force — and also so weak it can’t meaningfully retaliate." Somehow both are true.

US intel report: "Iran has space launch vehicles it could use to develop a militarily-viable ICBM by 2035 should Tehran decide to pursue the capability." Iran is 10 years away from building an ICBM that could hit US. No ticking time bomb. For more, see my paper: https://www.defensepriorities.org/explainers/why-iran-talks-should-deal-only-with-nuclear-issues/ @defpriorities

Schön, dass wir doch noch eine Ablöse für Bensebaini bekommen haben.

US Vice Admiral Fred Kacher has been removed from his position as director of the Joint Staff after only taking the post in December, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters https://reut.rs/3MZv0lj

The #US is intensifying the drumbeat of war against #Iran, with zero explanation of the non existent legal authority to use force and zero evidence of an “imminent threat” other than hypothetical scenarios based on possible future intentions… All Wars, including “wars of choice”, have horrific costs. That is the reason for the restraints and limitations established by international norms… This is #Iraq redux … it seems we never learn …

Bizarre Vorwürfe jetzt.

"Israeli intelligence has concluded that even with the imminent arrival of the USS Gerald R Ford later this week, the US has military capacity to sustain just a four to five day intense aerial assault on Iran, or a week of lower-intensity strikes." https://www.ft.com/content/0408deca-ecca-49ab-bff6-985ef83897ce

Lots of wisdom in this short reflection, arguing many "overestimated Ukrainian unity and resilience while underestimating Russia’s authoritarian consolidation, blind to the deep-seated crisis of liberal democracy and the political fragmentation of Western elites."

The tenor of the leaks to the NYT and WP today (see my two previous tweets) suggest we may not be heading toward the apocalyptic war everyone is predicting, and that Trump may be trying to get out of a corner in which he boxed himself. If Iran perceives that the U.S. attack is not going to threaten regime continuity, this will mean the scope of its response is likely to be relatively limited. What worries me is that this operation was reportedly agreed by Trump and Netanyahu in December, so that Israel will be frustrated if the U.S. contains it, or backs out. In that case, what are the Israelis likely to do? Most probably escalate dramatically in Lebanon.

In nearly five decades of mutual antagonism, the U.S. and Iran have never been so close to a major war. Escalation risks make any conflict scenario perilous for all concerned. A narrow path to averting war exists, but time is of the essence. @CrisisGroup’s new statement: https://www.crisisgroup.org/stm/middle-east-north-africa/iran/us-and-iran-can-still-avoid-war

Interesting twist since yesterday on the U.S. position toward an attack against Iran. Many are assuming the Thursday meeting will be make or break, but the NYT has been reporting that “Mr. Trump has been leaning toward conducting an initial strike in coming days intended to demonstrate to Iran’s leaders that they must be willing to agree to give up the ability to make a nuclear … Should those steps fail to convince Tehran to meet his demands, Mr. Trump told advisers, he would leave open the possibility of a military assault later this year intended to help topple Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader.” To many, that will sound like kicking the can down the road, meaning we may not see the apocalypse this week: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/23/us/politics/general-caine-iran-strikes-trump.html

The thuggishness of Israeli settlers as they drive Palestinians from their land grows worse; here they shot a 14-year-old boy. And this ethnic cleansing happens with the complicity of the United States government. Powerful story by @azamsahmed: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/23/world/palestinian-west-bank-settlers-displacement.html

He doesn’t like to talk about “when will this end” because his answer’s been the same for years—Ukraine will win soon, they just need more support Snyder & co have done Ukrainians a disservice by rejecting negotiations outright & insisting the war can only end in total victory

Separate from the vile content, why does the @nytimes keep just letting him write the same column over and over again?

Quite an obliteration it was.

All due respect, I disagree w/this article, because it doesn't take into account that now, unlike two years ago, Iran sees no value in a calibrated, limited response, but rather sees regional destabilization as the only way to restore its degraded deterrence. https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-diminishing-risk-of-an-iran-attack-4adae3a5

Für die Akten.

R to @RoPoppZurich: ...civilian airports to move the vast amount of equipment and assets."

"The reliance of the U.S. on European allies over the past month has been HUGE. Simply, they could not have done this without the UK, Germany, Italy, Greece and Spain supporting and allowing the U.S. to use bases and ..

Absolutely insane language.

Pres Trump ends up being puzzled because there's a legion of prompters on Middle Eastern affairs in Washington who have been wrong on the region for 50 years but never punished or banished.

For the record.

Trump says he wants a negotiated solution, but he can’t make up his mind what his negotiating position actually is. One moment, he just wants to keep Iran from getting a nuclear bomb; at other moments, he demands that Iran stop enriching any uranium, even at low levels suitable only for civilian uses; at still other moments, he wants the whole regime to collapse.

I thought it was AI for a second but then I realized it was so absurd that it couldn't even have occurred to anyone to create a fake video of it.

Great read by @EricSchmittNYT .It confirms what European and Middle Eastern officials have warned for years: Iran has spent decades preparing for asymmetric warfare through proxies and gray-zone forces to target Western interests: New intelligence shows Tehran could direct attacks on U.S. targets abroad. There’s rising “chatter,” no confirmed plot yet — but the risk is climbing fast. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/22/us/politics/iran-terrorist-attacks-proxies-trump.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share via @NYTimes

The limited strike to pressure Iran to make a deal with the threat of more seems extremely problematic on so many levels. Messaging that now is a sign of weakness in the negotiations. Sorry, that’s the reality. I can’t believe military commanders would recommend this.

BBC World Service compiled evidence on 160 cases of children shot in Gaza by the IDF. It found that in 95 cases (60%) the child was shot in the head or heart. In most cases the victim was under 12. Targeted murder of young children by Israel.

Plenty of US - Iran misinformation on this platform. Reminder • Trump has NOT decided about attack • Third round of talks on Thursday • No confirmation on bases evacuated in region except for Syria • No one fled to Russia • Saudi Arabia is NOT advocating regime change

And there you have it: Witkoff says that Trump is frustrated/curious as to why Iran has not "capitulated" yet, despite massive US military threats. This is the core of the matter: As I have written extensively, Israel and pro-Israeli voices have sold Trump a narrative that claims that Iran is far weaker than it actually is, which predictably has led Trump to push for maximalist goals and Iranian capitulation, which in turn, likely will lead to war - completely in line with Israel's goals. There is a deal to be had, but not the surrender option Trump has put on the table. As I explain this piece, the US "offer" is so unrealistic that Iran believes war offers it better odds than this capitulation. If Trump doesn't seek war, he needs to quickly discard the false Israeli narrative and adopt a much more realistic approach centered on American rather than Israeli interests. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-iran-small-attack/

Before & since the June war I've argued that the Iranian government's position on the nuclear issue and its regional policies are out of sync with reality it faces. But on the U.S. side, the professed interest in a deal seems undermined by fundamental points of confusion. 1/

Does Trump Have the Legal Authority to Strike Iran? Short answer: No. Longer answer: Also no. https://time.com/7380309/iran-war-legal-trump/

🤔

If Portugal follows London's lead on the usage of bases for war with Iran, we will have a rerun of the Greenland debate, this time of the Azores. 1970s rerun to be precise.

Syria's new Al Qaeda president I guess inadvertently created a situation that let tens of thousands of jihadists escape prison. No one will care or think about this until a few years from now when we need a new war.

No foreign enemy in decades has done more to hurt Americans’ security and prosperity than DC’s own pro-war hardliners. They’re revving up to do it again.