SZwanglos – Following Feed

This is the opening slide to a presentation I gave this morning.

Good.

Nice to see this- some of my @asranetwork collaborators included.

Well done @think_or_swim ! Looking forward to joining you for the launch on the 4th.

Pleased to share our new @ASRA Network paper in Nature Communications. We present a new framework to assess globally interconnected risks and crises. Read the paper: https://www.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62029-w

It's schematic, but I think this is the most accurate dynamic global systemic risk model you'll find. Likelihood of global GDP. Will answer questions.

Giving a figure like this (64 B) is meaningless. Shocks like this are of a scale that large-scale cascading consequences would be devastating, but subject to deep uncertainty.

On BBC's "Good Morning Scotland" (@BBCScotlandNews) I discussed my new book "Unfinished Empire" and the enduring impact of Russian imperialism on its neighbours Listen back here (1:46-1:55): https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002g2sy

This week, pay a visit to 'People and Places: Ireland in the 19th and 20th Centuries', a @NLIreland exhibition located at the National Photographic Archive in #TempleBar, #Dublin. 📆 Open Monday to Sunday, 10am - 4pm. Entry is free, no booking required. https://www.nli.ie/exhibitions-events/people-places

I have a proposal for An Post/ Government. In a world of growing risk, the AP network should provide national community resilience/ preparedness support complementing other services. @NewstalkFM

The UK Government Resilience Action Plan (so again, not a 'Strategy') has been published today h/t/ @LucyGoBag 🙏 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-government-resilience-action-plan/uk-government-resilience-action-plan-html#clarity-of-roles-and-responsibilities-in-the-public-sector-resilience-system

I'm reading @DonnachaDCU 's new book. A strong thumbs-up.

ITS Been a great to give a workshop/scenario/exercise at the #ASRA Currents of Change Symposium . Can't imagine another forum hosting such a topic+ bringing together such informed + relevant participants: Can We Prepare for Catastrophic Systemic Failure? An interactive exercise.

I’m looking forward to @ASRA Network’s Currents of Change symposium beginning this weekend, the first trans-disciplinary, global symposium dedicated to action on systemic risk. More here: https://www.asranetwork.org/news/currents-of-change-new-horizons-in-systemic-risk

There's a spectacular gap between the public + political parties assessment of priorities, and escalating global systemic risk. Real priority 1: a national resilience & preparedness strategy. P2: get moving asap. There is no country in EU as complacent as Ireland.

The roots of the Ukraine Conflict lie in Russia’s ‘Unfinished Empire’ In his new book ‘Unfinished Empire’, Prof Donnacha Ó Beacháin @DonnachaDCU argues that the world will continue to have “a Russia problem” until Vladimir Putin’s regime is defeated. Read: https://launch.dcu.ie/45AyEsH

Russia doesn’t allow foreign journalists to enter the occupied territories of Ukraine. Three Ukrainians in different Moscow-controlled cities spoke to me secretly “to let the world know what we face”. We changed their names for safety. ⁦@BBCNews⁩ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czj40rn8k0wo

Interesting public exercise involving former senior UK politicians using a scenario of a Russian attack. Would love to see RTE do similar for a broad range of systemic risks https://news.sky.com/story/the-wargame-new-sky-news-and-tortoise-media-podcast-series-simulates-a-russian-attack-on-uk-13371462

Would make a good head of an Irish National Resilience and Contingency Agency.

I've written a more in-depth blog that pulls together all our global catastrophe food security research: https://www.islandfutures.earth/refuge-theory-blog-posts/catastrophe-proof-food-security-for-nz